At present,the development of new energy vehicles is overwhelming,but behind the rapid development there are new problems.To this end,the relevant departments constantly adjust the development and encouragement policies of the new energy automobile industry,such as from substantial encouragement to subsidy retrograde.Recently,relevant departments have conducted a small discussion on the direction and plan of the subsidy adjustment for new energy vehicles in 2018.It is reported that the subsidy threshold for new energy passenger vehicles will be further raised in 2018,and the subsidy for new energy vehicles may decline faster than expected.Insiders predict that a new round of"reshuffling"of new energy vehicles may start next year,and promote the high-end development of China's new energy vehicles.
Policy analysis:retrograde policy or advance rules are more detailed and stricter
Recently,Dong Yang,executive vice president of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers,revealed that as the development speed of new energy vehicles exceeded the expected of the competent authorities,the subsidy amount exceeded the budget,so the competent authorities had the idea of increasing the proportion of retrograde.Journalists from all over the media noticed that the Ministry of Finance recently convened four ministries,associations and representatives of major enterprises to have a small discussion on the direction and plan of the subsidy adjustment for new energy vehicles in 2018,or intended to adjust the subsidy reduction standard for 2019 to be implemented in advance in 2018,that is,the subsidy will be reduced by 40%in 2018.
According to the current information,the subsidy policy of new energy vehicles in 2018 will be adjusted from three aspects:the classification of mileage subsidy will be more detailed,the requirement of battery energy density will be increased,and the classification of energy consumption coefficient subsidy.For passenger cars,the mileage subsidy may be divided according to a gear of 50km,and the classification may be changed from 3 to 5.At the same time,the subsidy for A00 class models may be focused on retrograde.For passenger cars,the energy density requirement of power batteries may be increased by 140Wh/kg,compared with 120Wh/kg previously.The threshold of continuous driving distance will be raised to 150 km,that is,the original subsidy of 20,000 yuan for 100 km~150 km will be cancelled,and the subsidy for 150 km~200 km will also be reduced from 36,000 yuan to 20,000 yuan.
Focus:Endurance<Small minivans are at the top of the 200km or plummeting sales
Yin Chengliang,deputy director of the Automotive Engineering Research Institute at Shanghai Jiao Tong University,said that if the retrograde policy is implemented ahead of time,there is no doubt that the number of small and micro electric vehicles below 150 km will be hit hard and the number of related models will be sharply reduced.At the same time,150 to 200 km of small electric cars will also face subsidies halved,the extent of the impact is also not negligible.Industry experts have data to back up their predictions.Since the beginning of this year,the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles has increased month-on-month for nine months.In October,the sales volume reached 65,000 units,with a month-on-month increase of 7,000 units and a year-on-year growth of 102%.Among them,micro-electric vehicles continue to maintain a strong,in the overall market for a very large proportion.According to the data in October this year,BAIC EC series,Zhidou D2 and JAC iEV6S/E ranked first and third place respectively with 11,315,4,502 and 2,861 vehicles,all of which are A00 class electric vehicles.The popularity of small and micro electric vehicles is evident.However,official figures for the range of these tiny electric cars are mostly between 100km and 200km.Cui Dongshu,secretary-general of the All-China Federation of Passenger Cars,said low prices were a big part of the reason for the popularity of small and micro electric cars,and sales would inevitably suffer if subsidies in this area were to be sharply reduced or withdrawn.
Yin Chengliang analysis thinks that the retrograde policy has a very obvious impact on the enterprises with small and micro electric vehicles occupying the share at present,and many new energy passenger vehicle enterprises driven by the policy will be difficult to achieve the total quota in the future.In the end,with subsidies sharply reduced,small and micro electric cars will most likely be abandoned by car companies.
Market forecast:some enterprises or be eliminated by merger
From the overall market,the new energy vehicle retrograde policy may not cause a sharp decline in new energy vehicle sales.
Cui Dongshu,secretary-general of the All-China Federation of Passenger Transport,said the abolition of tax incentives for small cars next year would further highlight the advantages of new energy vehicles,which could to some extent boost their development.For this reason,analysts within the industry said that,under the market factors,the decline of subsidies will not be a severe blow to the sales of new energy vehicles.But for enterprises,they are facing new challenges.Previously,many new energy industry chain enterprises survived by subsidies,but with the decline and exit of subsidies,it may be difficult to maintain.All media reporters noticed that with the recent news about new energy vehicles subsidies TuiPo or will advance was spread,has sparked new energy automobile plate collective tumbled,especially lithium battery plate,plate and coaches,November 16,long garden group shares,salt lake,the forerunner of intelligent,jinlong car stock drop stop,yutong bus shares fell 7.19%,byd shares fell 5.94%.
Chen Quanshi,professor of automotive engineering at Tsinghua University and director of the Electric vehicle Research Office,said that as the national policy becomes stricter,a large number of New energy vehicle enterprises in China will probably be eliminated in the next year or two and carry out mergers and reorganizations.
Reporter observation:aims at supporting core technology and quality enterprises
Undoubtedly,the decline of subsidies will accelerate the clearance of production capacity at the middle and low end of the market,making the development of the new energy vehicle industry healthier and forcing new energy vehicle enterprises to carry out technological innovation,so that the superior enterprises will eventually become the biggest beneficiaries of the market.
For new energy vehicles,the most core technology at present is the power battery.The national requirement for energy density of power battery of new energy vehicles is further improved,which poses a challenge to the power battery technology.Omnimedia reporters noticed that the current major automobile manufacturers have strengthened their cooperation with power battery advantage enterprises in order to improve the core technology and range of their electric vehicles.Industry insiders pointed out that the battery market space is huge,the decline of subsidies will make the mixed market become more standardized,large battery companies will emerge.
As a leader in the new energy vehicle industry,BYD told reporters:if the subsidy decline,on the new energy vehicle profitability will have an impact,but can be partially offset by raising prices or controlling costs.The higher subsidy threshold is conducive to the elimination of uncompetitive enterprises in the industry and the improvement of market share of leading enterprises.